Comparing Extremism Propagation Patterns in Continuous Opinion Models

We compare patterns of extremism propagation yielded by 4 continuous opinion models, when the main parameters vary, on different types of networks (total connection, random network, lattice). In two models the individuals take into account the uncertainty of their interlocutor, and they show similar patterns, with a higher probability of double extreme convergence than in the other couple of models (in which the interlocutor\'s uncertainty is not taken into account). The addition of noise does not change significantly the results, except that it favours the single extreme convergence in some models. The lattice topology of interactions provides results which are significantly different from the ones obtained with a random network of similar connection density. We identify 3 typical behaviours with a single initial extremist, which help to explain the different results. In particular, we observe that the single extreme convergence is favoured by small shortest paths between all pairs of nodes in the network.Continuous Opinion, Extremism, Convergence Pattern

Differential Equation Models Derived from an Individual-Based Model Can Help to Understand Emergent Effects

We study a model of primacy effect on individual's attitude. Typically, when receiving a strong negative feature first, the individual keeps a negative attitude whatever the number of moderate positive features it receives afterwards. We consider a population of individuals, which receive the features from a media, and communicate with each other. We observe that interactions favour the primacy effect, compared with a population of isolated individuals. We derive a differential equation system ruling the evolution of probabilities that individuals retain different sets of features. The study of this aggregated model of the IBM shows that interaction can increase or decrease the number of individuals exhibiting a primacy effect. We verify on the IBM that the interactions can decrease the primacy effect in the conditions suggested by the study of the aggregated model. We finally discuss the interest of such a double-modelling approach (using a model of the individual based model) for this application.Primacy Effect, Information Filtering, Agent-Based Model, Aggregated Model, Collective Effects of Interactions, Double-Modelling

The Leviathan model: Absolute dominance, generalised distrust, small worlds and other patterns emerging from combining vanity with opinion propagation

We propose an opinion dynamics model that combines processes of vanity and opinion propagation. The interactions take place between randomly chosen pairs. During an interaction, the agents propagate their opinions about themselves and about other people they know. Moreover, each individual is subject to vanity: if her interlocutor seems to value her highly, then she increases her opinion about this interlocutor. On the contrary she tends to decrease her opinion about those who seem to undervalue her. The combination of these dynamics with the hypothesis that the opinion propagation is more efficient when coming from highly valued individuals, leads to different patterns when varying the parameters. For instance, for some parameters the positive opinion links between individuals generate a small world network. In one of the patterns, absolute dominance of one agent alternates with a state of generalised distrust, where all agents have a very low opinion of all the others (including themselves). We provide some explanations of the mechanisms behind these emergent behaviors and finally propose a discussion about their interestComment: Improved version after referees comment

Dialogues Concerning a (Possibly) New Science

The paper relates virtual dialogues about social simulation, with the implicit reference to Galieo\'s \'dialogues concerning two new sciences\'.Social Simulations, Epistemology, Validation, Simulation Methods

Taking into Account the Variations of Neighbourhood Sizes in the Mean-Field Approximation of the Threshold Model on a Random Network

We compare the individual-based \'threshold model\' of innovation diffusion in the version which has been studied by Young (1998), with an aggregate model we derived from it. This model allows us to formalise and test hypotheses on the influence of individual characteristics upon global evolution. The classical threshold model supposes that an individual adopts a behaviour according to a trade-off between a social pressure and a personal interest. Our study considers only the case where all have the same threshold. We present an aggregated model, which takes into account variations of the neighbourhood sizes, whereas previous work assumed this size fixed (Edwards et al. 2003a). The comparison between the aggregated models (the first one assuming a neighbourhood size and the second one, a variable one) points out an improvement of the approximation in most of the value of parameter space. This proves that the average degree of connectivity (first aggregated model) is not sufficient for characterising the evolution, and that the node degree variability has an impact on the diffusion dynamics. Remaining differences between both models give us some clues about the specific ability of individual-based model to maintain a minority behaviour which becomes a majority by an addition of stochastic effects.Aggregate; Individual-Based Model; Innovation Diffusion; Mean Field Approximation; Model Comparison; Social Network Effect

A Universal Model of Commuting Networks

We test a recently proposed model of commuting networks on 80 case studies from different regions of the world (Europe and United-States) and with geographic units of different sizes (municipality, county, region). The model takes as input the number of commuters coming in and out of each geographic unit and generates the matrix of commuting flows betwen the geographic units. We show that the single parameter of the model, which rules the compromise between the influence of the distance and job opportunities, follows a universal law that depends only on the average surface of the geographic units. We verified that the law derived from a part of the case studies yields accurate results on other case studies. We also show that our model significantly outperforms the two other approaches proposing a universal commuting model (Balcan et al. (2009); Simini et al. (2012)), particularly when the geographic units are small (e.g. municipalities).Comment: 11 pages, 5 figure

Utiliser des machines à vecteurs de support pour approcher les contours d'une fonction valeur dans des problèmes d'atteinte de cible

Nous proposons d'utiliser un algorithme d'apprentissage particulier, les SVMs, pour résoudre des problèmes d'atteinte de cible en temps minimal. La cible correspond à un état souhaité, en sachant que le système se détériore dans une certaine région de l'espace (lorsqu'il transgresse un ensemble de contraintes de viabilité). Le bassin de capture au temps t correspond à l'ensemble des états qui peuvent atteindre la cible en un temps inférieur ou égal à t, sans quitter l'ensemble des contrainte de viabilité. Les frontières d'un bassin de capture au temps t correspondent alors aux contours d'une fonction valeur au temps t. Les bassins de capture peuvent alors être utilisés pour définir une fonction de contrôle qui permet au système d'atteindre la cible en un temps minimal. Nous proposons une nouvelle approche, basée sur les SVMs, qui permettent d'approcher les bassins de capture successifs et définissons une procédure de contrôle qui permet de contrôler le système afin qu'il atteigne la cible. Nous illustrons cette méthode sur un exemple simple : le problème de la voiture sur la colline

Interacting Agents and Continuous Opinions Dynamics

We present a model of opinion dynamics in which agents adjust continuous opinions as a result of random binary encounters whenever their difference in opinion is below a given threshold. High thresholds yield convergence of opinions towards an average opinion, whereas low thresholds result in several opinion clusters. The model is further generalised to network interactions, threshold heterogeneity, adaptive thresholds and binary strings of opinions.Comment: 21 pages, 13 figures. http://www.lps.ens.fr/~weisbuch/contopidyn/contopidyn.htm